Summer temperature in Kunashir during the last four hundred years

In cooperation with G.Jacoby, R.D´Arrigo, and N.Eremenko

In July of 2001 tree cores were extracted from centuries-old oaks (Quercus crispula) and developed into a 400-year tree-ring width index series. Taxus baccata chronology is 200 years long and generally agrees with the oak chronology. Analyses showed the oak ring-width indices to correlate strongly with summer (June-Sept.) temperatures as recorded at Uzhno-Kurilsk on the Island (FIG. 1 and 2) The summer temperatures were reconstructed using the tree-ring data and 52 % of the variance was explained by the tree-ring indices (FIG. 3).The recorded temperature data and the tree-ring data show similar correlation patterns with sea-surface temperatures of the North Pacific. Studies of North Pacific variations, as quantified by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), show the PDO to be an important index of large-scale climate variation. The tree-ring series explains more than 33% of the variance of the July-Sept. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and has similar spectral properties, further supporting the concept of multi-decadal variation or shifts in North Pacific climate.

Selected References
Biondi, F., A. Gershunov, and D. Cayan, 2001. North Pacific decadal climate variability since AD 1661. J. Clim.14: 5-10.

Cook, E.R. 2002. Reconstructions of Pacific Decadal Variability from long tree-ring records, Eos Trans. 83 (19), Spring Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC42A-04.

D'Arrigo R., R. Villalba, G. Wiles, 2001. Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Climate Dynamics 18: 219-224.

D'Arrigo, R., D. Yamaguchi, G. Wiles, G. Jacoby, A. Osawa, D.Lawrence, 1997. A Kashiwa oak (Quercus dentata) tree-ring width chronology from northern coastal Hokkaido, Japan. 27 (4) 613-617.

Davi, N., R.D. D'Arrigo, G.C. Jacoby, B.M. Buckley & O. Kobayashi, 2000. Warm-season annual to decadal temperature variability for Hokkaido, Japan, reconstructed from tree-ring density data: AD 1557-1990, Climatic Change 52, 201-217.

Fukui, E. ed., 1977. The Climate of Japan, Elsevier Science Publishers B. V. Amsterdam. Gedalof, Z., and D. Smith, 2001. Interdecadal climate variability and regime shifts in Pacific North America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28: 1515-1518.

Solomina, O. N., Muraviev, Ya.D., Braeuning,A., Shiyatov, S.G., 1999, Tree-rings in Central Kamchatka in Comparison with Climate Variations and Ice Core Data: Climate Change and Variability.

Fig. 1 Fig. 2
Fig. 3, Jakoby et al, 2004

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